Submitted by Mark O’Byrne – GoldCore
- Demand for physical gold this month at “a historically high level” – HSBC
- Q3 U.S. Mint gold sales set to dwarf those of previous two quarters
- Supply of physical silver “continues to be tight” and premiums rising
- China and India demand remains very strong
- Seasonal Asian buyers to add to demand in coming weeks
- Dovish Fed bullish for gold
Demand for physical gold and silver in August and September has been exceptionally strong as investors seek a safe-haven from market turmoil, as the global economy slows down and as it becomes clear that the Federal Reserve and central banks generally are slowly losing credibility and ultra loose monetary policies are set to continue for the foreseeable future.
BULLION COIN & BAR PREMIUMS & AVAILABILITY – September 18, 2015
|Gold Bars (1 oz – Perth Mint)||3.75%||In Stock|
|Gold Bars (1 oz)||4%||In Stock|
|Gold Bars (10 oz)||3.75%||Delivery Delay – 5 Days|
|Gold Bars (1 kilo)||2.00%||Delivery Delay – 5 Days|
|Gold Maples (1 oz)||4.25%||Delivery Delay – 5 Days|
|Gold Eagles (1 oz)||5%||Delivery Delay – 5 Days|
|Gold Krugerrands (1 oz)||4.25%||In Stock|
|Gold Philharmonics (1 oz)||5.00%||In Stock|
|Gold Buffalos ( 1 oz)||5.00%||In Stock|
|Gold Sovereigns (0.2354 oz)||8.50%||2015 In Stock|
|Gold Sovereigns (0.2354 oz – Pre 1933)||9.00%||Not available in volume|
|Silver Bars (100 oz Generic)||9.50%||Delivery Delay – October 4|
|Silver Bars (100 oz LBMA – Asahi Refinery)||9%||Delivery Delay – Nov 9|
|Silver Bars (1000 oz)||5.50%||Delivery Delay – 1 to 15 Days|
|Silver Eagles (1 oz)||35%||Not Available|
|Silver Maples (1 oz)||25%||Delivery Delay – Unknown|
Note: Given continuing and deepening delays for certain popular bullion coins and bars and rising premiums we believe it is important to keep our clients and subscribers aware of the most up to date premiums and availability. The prices quoted are indicative and can change at any time. We continue to be one of the most competitive bullion dealers internationally. The premiums quoted are for smaller orders and there are volume discounts and lower premiums on larger orders..
HSBC described gold demand from the U.S. Mint as being at a “historically high level” which indeed it has been. The bank report that the Mint has sold 322,000 ounces of gold in the first half of this month.
Of this, only 91,000 ounces were made up of Gold Eagle coins – the most popular coin with retail investors – although some market participants believe that some of the stock may be being accumulated by large institutional investors.
And yet, demand for gold eagles is still very strong with demand in Q3 set to dwarf demand of the previous two quarters. With two weeks still to go, total Gold Eagle coin sales have been a staggering 352,500 ounces.
That compares with sales of 146,000 oz in Q1 and 127,000 oz in Q2. So far this year Gold Eagle sales are almost 20% higher than last years total sales of 524,500 oz.
Silver eagle supply continues to be very tight with long delays and a lack of clarity about when supply will be available again. Premiums on Eagles have surged and some are selling for as much as 40% or more than $6 per coin over spot. Dealers report “unprecedented” demand for large silver bars.
Silver maples are on small weekly allocations and silver bars are also becoming difficult to source in volume. The release of the 2016 Australian 1 oz silver .9999 Kangaroo, intended to compete with the Eagle/Maple is already in such demand that the Perth Mint is rationing supply to large dealers.
Production on other 2016 silver products has been delayed by the Australian mint to maintain production levels on the Kangaroo due to very strong global demand.
At the same time the traditional months of strong demand from Asia are now ahead of us which will add even greater demand for gold in the coming weeks. In India, gold demand will reach its peak later than usual this year as Diwali falls in the second week of November.
Premiums for physical gold in China have risen from $4 per ounce to as high as $6 this indicating very strong demand in China. As do withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
The incredibly strong demand for physical precious metals around the world continues to be obscured by institutional selling of futures contracts on the COMEX. The paper or electronic market continues to dominate the spot price for now. But rising premiums and delays for popular bullion products suggests that proper price discovery reflecting real world supply and demand may be at hand.
However, it is clear both from the enormous demand and from the shortages in the precious metals markets that many investors are becoming nervous about the markets and the state of the global economy.
We advise our readers, as always, to acquire physical gold and to store it outside of the banking system in safer jurisdictions internationally.
Today’s Gold Prices: USD 1136.00, EUR 992.31 and GBP 7206.25 per ounce.
Yesterday’s Gold Prices: 1118.15, EUR 987.46 and GBP 720.64 per ounce.
Gold rose nearly 1% or $11.60 to $1,131.30 while silver gained 1.4% or 20 cents to $15.11 an ounce on the COMEX just before the Federal Reserve interest rate announcement yesterday.
Gold in Singapore dipped lower but in European trade gold was moved higher again and is now above $1,140 per ounce. Silver bullion has ticked another 0.8% higher to $15.35 today. Platinum and palladium are slightly lower today.
Gold is headed for a 3 percent weekly gain and silver for a 5.5% weekly gain.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged yesterday due to increasing concerns about the global economy and financial market volatility. The sluggish U.S. economy may also have played a role in the decision but this was not signalled.
In what amounted to a somewhat embarrassing volte face, Yellen said developments in a tightly linked global economy had in effect forced the U.S. central bank’s hand. “The outlook abroad appears to have become less certain,” Yellen understatedly told a news conference as gold prices ticked higher.
Yellen was more dovish than expected which is bullish for gold and suggests that the long awaited for bottom for gold may have occurred in early August prior to recent market volatility.
The longer interest rates stay at these record low levels, the better for gold.