The “War On Terror” Is The Hoax Foundation Of The Police/Spy State

Submitted by Dr. Paul Craig Roberts – Institute for Public Economy

The “war on terror” was a hoax. Americans were deceived by policymakers, who are pursuing a hegemonic agenda. The American people were too trusting and too gullible and, consequently, Americans were easily betrayed by Washington and by the presstitute media.

The consequences of the deceit, gullibility, and betrayal are horrendous for Americans, for millions of peoples in the Middle East, Africa, Ukraine, and for Washington’s European vassals.

The consequences for Americans are an aborted Constitution, a police/spy state and rising resentment and hatred of America around the world.

The consequences for peoples in Somolia, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen, Pakistan, Syria, Palestine, and Ukraine have been massive deaths and dislocations, infrastructure destruction, internal conflicts, birth defects, invasions, bombings, drones. Millions of peoples have been murdered by Washington’s pursuit of hegemony, and millions have been turned into refugees.

The consequences for Washington’s European vassals is that the millions of refugees from Washington’s wars are now overrunning Europe, causing social and political discord and threatening the European political parties that enabled, and participated in, Washington’s massive war crimes in eight countries.

The populations of the eight countries and Washington’s vassals are stuck with the consequences of Washington’s evil, vicious, and illegal actions. And Americans are stuck with the police/spy state and militarized police who murder three Americans each day and brutalize countless others.

The countries we have destroyed have no recourse to restitution.

Our European vassals will have to provide from their own pockets for the refugees that Washington’s wars are sending to them. Continue reading

Deeper Look At August ‘Dollar’ Run

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider  –  Alhambra Investment Partners

The TIC update for August estimates provided some clarity on several accounts. Given the nastiness of the “dollar” environment in that month it was certain that the Treasury Department would display negative “dollar” conditions, and that was the case. The numerous subcomponents and categories were quite useful in corroborating that picture, even if there was some work and re-orientation in unpacking it.

On the first count, the total net of foreign US$ flows was negative again for the first time since January. Here we have to be careful in distinguishing the relative changes of not just official vs. private but also private flows relative to whatever recent baseline. As you can see below, private net “buying” appears especially robust in 2015 exactly contrary to the obvious realized condition of wholesale “dollar” funding.

ABOOK Nov 2015 TIC Private 6m

On a cumulative 6-month basis, private flow was as positive as had been seen since 2011! Upon closer inspection, however, the outlines of the “dollar” waves become apparent; thus, that huge “inflow” occurred only in the interim period between the first and the second waves. The more benign conditions that dominated those months, particularly after the March FOMC, must have seemed almost complete Goldilocks – the FOMC being far more patient in giving “lower for longer” at the same time “transitory” still held widespread favor and plausibility. It was, given the more direct turmoil overseas, a window of orthodox “cleanest dirty shirt” in clear practice.

Stark and betraying reality intruded right at July, correlating and thus corroborating the numerous inflections around July 6. In the monthly totals, the outline of the start of this second “dollar” intrusion is obvious even if it was still, contrary to the first, a net positive “inflow” into US assets. Thus, the seriousness of the second wave is not the sign in front but rather the second derivative change peak to potential trough; the change June to July 2015, from +$93 billion to +$21 billion, is nearly as great as that of September to October 2014 which produced the “computer glitches” of October 15; +$79 billion to -$15 billion. Continue reading

US Economy – Not Getting Better

Submitted by Pater Tenebrarum  –  The Acting Man Blog

An Update in Light of Recent Data Releases

Since our last updates on the manufacturing sector of the US economy (in chronological order: “Is the US Economy Close to a Bust?” and “More Ominous Data Points”), new data have been released and our friend Michael Pollaro has mailed us updated versions of his charts, so we decided to provide another update. So far, there is no sign that the emerging downtrend in manufacturing activity is stopping or reversing. The recent manufacturing ISM has barely clung on to the 50 level, but this masks quite a bit of underlying deterioration.


In light of this, it is also noteworthy that the trend in business sales and orders is diverging ever more strongly from the stock market’s trend. The deterioration in economic activity is evindently masked by the inflationary policies instituted all over the world. Experience suggests that this divergence will end and that these trends will eventually become synchronized again. Given the growing gap, the eventual reassessment could be unpleasantly violent (we did get another warning shot this summer). This is however not completely independent of central bank actions. The cries for even more lunatic money printing exercises are becoming ever louder, which we plan to discuss in a separate article. In the meantime on to the charts. The first three charts are the updates Michael sent us:

1-ISM new orders vs, Dollar value core factory ordersISM new manufacturing orders vs. the y/y percentage change in new orders for all manufacturing and new orders for durable goods, lagged by 6 months – click to enlarge.

2-ISM new orders vs. IPISM new orders vs. Industrial production index for manufacturing (lagged by 6 months) – click to enlarge. Continue reading

Volkswagen and China: A Perfect Fit

Submitted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer  –  The Automatic Earth

Jack Delano Long stairway in mill district of Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 1940

If Angela Merkel wants to get rid of one of her major headaches, we suggest she should tell Volkswagen to move its operations from Wolfsburg to China. It may seem a strange thing to do at first blush, with 750,000 German jobs on the line, but bear with us here, because this could well be the only way to preserve at least some value for VW’s stock- and bondholders.

And several layers of German government, as well as German pension funds, are major investors. In a company that has now lost 40%, over €32 billion, of its market cap, and, according to an estimate by UBS, faces €35 billion or more in costs over the various emissions scandals. Count your losses, German pensioners! And the way things are going, and the way the scandal is widening, this may still be a conservative number.

Here’s the ‘thing’: after the most recent admissions coming from the carmaker and its affiliates it may well have become impossible for -international- lawmakers and lawyers alike to not go after Volkswagen with all they’ve got. First the EPA found a few days ago that defeat devices were installed in larger diesel engines too, those used in Porsche and Audi cars, instead of just the smaller ones whose testing by the University of West Virginia started this whole Teutonic drama.

Now we find that for VW’s petrol engines, too, various emissions have gone severely underreported. Porsche’s official reaction to the new diesel findings was that the company was ‘surprised’. Maybe that has something to do with the fact that the new Volkswagen CEO, Mueller, ran Porsche before being promoted to his present gig?! ‘Surprised’?

Other than that ‘surprise’ comment, both Audi and Porsche have reportedly flatly denied the very existence of the defeat devices in their products, even as the EPA research looks solid. Perhaps they should have been advised by their vast legal staffs that flat denial at this point in the game is a dangerous move. Continue reading

“Buy and Hold” Fallacies – Does This 80/20 Portfolio Make Sense?

Submitted by William Bonner, Chairman – Bonner & Partners 

Time to Be in Stocks?

POITOU, France – It is wet, but not cold, in this area of France this morning. Rain splashes on the copper flashing. The windowpanes fog over. We have made some tea and settled in to our library for a long day’s study.

One of the pleasures of life is having a good place to work. The library is an old octagonal building, with a cement floor and brick walls, that had been used for laundry. We replaced the windows, put in a gas fireplace, and lined the walls with bookshelves.

Bill’s ancestor Dr. Paracelsus Bonner in his study

Engraving via William Blades

You never know how these projects are going to turn out. We have been building and remodeling all our lives; this is one of the successes. It is warm, cozy, richly decorated with books and old guitars… and a delight to be in. We look forward to opening the door in the morning. We regret having to close it at night. Onward!

Yesterday, we learned from Wall Street Journal reporter Brett Arends that this is the best time to invest in the stock market:

“The best estimates argue that over the long term, stocks have beaten bonds, cash and deposits by an average of about 4 to 5 percentage points a year. Compounded over time, that has amounted to an enormous difference. After 30 years, someone who invested in stocks has often ended up with three times as much money as someone who kept it all in cash and bonds.

Meanwhile, those gains have typically all come during the winter months. Peculiar, but apparently true. The most recent academic study, which has looked at stock markets around the world and went back in some cases more than 100 years, has found that winter has beaten summer pretty consistently in almost every country and almost every period.”

MSCIWELTThe seasonal pattern of the MSCI World Index over the past 30 years, via cycles expert Dimitri Speck. As you can see, the period October to April has been the most profitable time period in the stock market on average, while the May to October phase is associated with slight losses on average. Continue reading

Factory Opposites

Submitted by Jeffrey Snider  –  Alhambra Investment Partners

Economists continue to claim that manufacturing just doesn’t matter and that the service economy is more than fine. Setting aside the obvious link between services and goods to begin with (since so many services are dedicated to managing, moving and especially selling goods), it just doesn’t add up; if consumers are freely spending on services then why would they so eschew goods? If it were just a minor slowing in manufacturing (which has spread to our trade partners, no less) it would be far more plausible in that manner, but the global goods economy, which remains the bedrock core association, is already showing up in recession form. Just in America, manufacturing hasn’t hit a speedbump but rather a conspicuous wall.

The latest figures to demonstrate that are factory orders. No matter the version, seasonally adjusted or not, they are recessionary – and have been for more than 6 months now. Not counting the base effects from July 2014 (which produced a -15% Y/Y contraction for July 2015), the other five months of the past six have been, in order, -6.5%, -8.3%, -4.2%, -7.0%, and -7.1% for September. Seasonally-adjusted, factory orders have declined month-over-month by more than 1.1% in each of the past two. That has the monthly level for orders, a forward-looking economic indication, at the lowest level since the middle of the 2012 slowdown. It took the crash to November 2008 and the bottom of dot-com recession in early 2002 to accomplish that feat, erasing three years of factory gains.

ABOOK Nov 2015 Factory Orders SA LongerABOOK Nov 2015 Factory Orders SA RecentABOOK Nov 2015 Factory Orders SA MM

Continue reading

Worlds Largest Debtor Ever Raises U.S. ‘Debt Ceiling’…Again

Submitted by Mark O’Byrne  –  GoldCore

Debtor Ever Raises U.S. ‘Debt Ceiling’…Again

The US government has once again agreed to increase it’s so-called debt “ceiling” – this time from $18.5 trillion to $20 trillion.  The so-called debt ceiling is recognized industry-wide as a complete misnomer.

GoldCore: US Debt & Debt limit vs Gold

“The phrase “debt ceiling” sounds austere and restrictive, as if intended to keep a lid on government spending. Actually, the U.S. national debt limit was conceived almost a century ago to do the opposite: to make it easier for Washington to borrow money” (see: Bloomberg Quicktake)

Investment advisers Casey Research yesterday called the debt ceiling ‘a farce’. “Last week, Forbes reported the U.S. government has raised the debt ceiling 74 timessince March 1962. The latest increase – number 75 – should help fund the government until March 2017 or so.”

They highlight just how serious and foreboding these uncontrolled US debt levels are: “With a debt of $18.3 trillion, the U.S. is the most indebted nation in the history of the world. This massive and unprecedented debt load is extremely dangerous. We believe it’s only a matter of time until it sparks the next financial crisis.”

In their article Casey Research point to the extremely low interest rates as another dangerous factor in the US debt game. “The Federal Reserve dropped its key rate to effectively zero in December 2008. Seven years of easy money has made it incredibly cheap for consumers, businesses, and the federal government to borrow money”.

The research firm quote the recent observations of famed contrarian investor Marc Faber, who points to the facts:

The U.S. government’s debt has more than doubled over the past decade, from $7.3 trillion in 2004 to more than $18 trillion today. But due to low interest rates, the cost to service that debt has only gone up 34%.

This is one reason why Faber is investing in precious metals and precious metals stocks…

Read the full article “Why the U.S. Debt Ceiling is a Farce“.

Casey Research can be followed @caseyresearch

The Daily Debt Rattle

Submitted by Raúl Ilargi Meijer  –  The Automatic Earth

European Union Predicts 3 Million More Refugees By End Of Next Year (WaPo)
UN Expects Daily Refugee Flow Of 5,000 To Europe This Winter (Reuters)
From Lesvos, Tsipras Says Greece Cannot Cope With Refugees (Reuters)
Tsipras To Hold Emergency Meeting On Refugees With Mayors And Governors (AP)
A Hand in the Water is not Like a Hand in the Fire (Press Project)
Merkel Hit By Refugee Crisis Setback As Berlin Drops Transit Zones Plan (Guar.)
The Economic Impact of the European Refugee Crisis (Atlantic)
Is Europe’s Economy So Bad the ECB Will Run Out of Things to Buy? (Bloomberg)
EU Cuts Growth and Inflation Outlook as ECB Decision Looms (Bloomberg)
Brussels Demands More Austerity ‘Measures’ In Greece (Kath.)
How China Broke the World’s ‘Bubble Machine’ (Bonner)
The Valeant Scandal and Steve Keen on China and Portugal (RT)
China’s Stock-Market Bulls Are Back, But Where Are the Earnings? (Bloomberg)
China’s Bonds Set for Worst Week Since May as PBOC Seen on Hold (Bloomberg)
Monetary Bazookas Or Not, “Global Crisis Is Inevitable” (Saxobank)
Deflation Risks May Warrant Radical New Central-Bank Thinking: IMF (WSJ)
Standard Chartered’s Shares Plunge 7% After Fitch Downgrade (Bloomberg)
MSF Says US Planes Attacked Staff Fleeing Kunduz Hospital (Reuters)
Exxon Mobil Investigated for Possible Climate Change Lies (NY Times)
World Only Half Way To Meeting Emissions Target With Current Pledges (Guardian)