Submitted by David Stockman – The Contra Corner Blog
The Fed pricked the financial bubble yesterday as expected. Janet Yellen’s press conference couldn’t have been more perfect for our investment thesis at my new research publication, Stockman’s Bubble Finance Trader. It confirmed that the money printers have come to a stark dead end.
The fact is, the global economy is deflating rapidly and the U.S. is sliding into recession. But our Fed chairman is clueless about what’s happening. She and her posse of money printers are going to get bushwhacked by reality in the year ahead.
She insisted repeatedly that the “economic fundamentals” are sound yesterday. Even though practically everything that matters is going south. This includes business investment, exports, retail sales, industrial production, inventory ratios, commodity prices, freight volumes and much more.
Our Keynesian school marm hangs all of her groundless optimism on the completely misleading and heavily medicated jobs numbers put out by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
But here’s the thing: You can’t keep saying that the US labor market is in the pink of health when there are 102 million adult Americans without jobs. Or when there are still 3% fewer full-time, full-pay breadwinner jobs than there were 16 years ago when Bill Clinton was still in the White House.
So here’s where we stand after yesterday’s watershed moment…
Yellen officially admitted that, after the lunacy of free money for 84 months running, the Fed is out of excuses. And that it will start draining up to $1 trillion per day from the Wall Street swamp of liquidity.
If the Fed doesn’t follow through on this huge draining action, interest rates won’t go up, even by its trivial 25 basis points target. Its credibility would be shattered.
But if it does start heavily draining liquidity, it will catalyze the current sell off in the massive $2.6 trillion high yield market. That in turn will pull the props out from under the stock market. Here’s why: massive debt financed stock buybacks and mergers and acquisition (M&A) deals have inflated equities to their current nosebleed heights. Continue reading